China think-tank sees 2011 GDP growth at 9.4 pct-Xinhua

From http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/10/china-economy-growth-idUSL3E7LA24J20111010

BEIJING | Mon Oct 10, 2011 9:36am EDT

BEIJING Oct 10 (Reuters) - China’s economy is likely to grow an annual 9.4 percent in 2011 before slowing further to 9.2 percent in 2012, the Xinhua news agency cited the latest forecast by a top government think-tank.

The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences had cut its forecast on China’s economic growth this year from the previously estimated 9.6 percent, according to Xinhua report on Monday.

The country’s economy rose an annual 10.4 percent in 2010 and the pace of growth slowed to 9.6 percent in the first half of this year.

The think tank also said that the full-year inflation is likely to be 5.5 percent in 2011, well above the 4 percent target set by the government at the beginning of this year.

China’s annual inflation pulled back to 6.2 percent in August from July’s three-year high, raising expectations that Beijing may hold off further policy tightening amid uncertainties hanging over the global economic recovery.

The think-tank predicted China’s trade surplus would continue to shrink this year, with import climbing 26.2 percent from a year ago while exports rising 21.8 percent, Xinhua said.

The median forecast of 21 economists is for China’s trade surplus to fall to $16.3 billion in September, from August’s $17.8 billion, according to a Reuters poll.

The National Bureau of Statistics is due to publish inflation data for September on Thursday and third-quarter economic growth numbers on October 18.